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When will the war between China and the United States start and how will it end: Washington will not like the results of the study

Taiwan Air Force Fighter "Mirage-2000" before the start of the training flight.

A Taiwanese Air Force Mirage-2000 fighter before a training flight.

A photo: REUTERS

China tried 24 times to take over Taiwan, but failed. Taiwan’s valiant army, supported by the glorious US armed forces, almost always knew how to repulse the aggressor …

This is how the main meaning can be expressed reportpublished by the American Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which was reported by the Arabic edition of Al Jazeera.

American military experts have worked out as many as 24 different scenarios for China’s invasion of the island in 2026. And in most of them, the People’s Liberation Army of China (PLA) was defeated by the freedom-loving people of Taiwan. It is his determination to fight that is noted in the report as a decisive factor in victory.

But for victory over Beijing, in addition to the decisive factor, three more are needed, the report notes. First, the United States should come to the aid of Taiwan in the very first days after the outbreak of hostilities and use the full range of its capabilities. Otherwise, there is a risk that the Chinese will be able to create a strong foothold on the island. Secondly, the Americans must use their bases in Japan, without which US fighter aircraft will not be able to effectively participate in the war. To be honest, the analysts were a little surprised here – but can Washington fight in this region without its Japanese military fist? And third, the United States must have enough long-range air-launched anti-ship missiles to quickly deliver a massive strike against the Chinese fleet.

Modern Chinese armored vehicles at a military parade in Beijing.

Modern Chinese armored vehicles at a military parade in Beijing.

A photo: GLOBAL LOOK PRESS

The Chinese invasion, CSIS analysts discovered in their war games, always began with bombing raids that decimated Taiwan’s navy and air force in the early hours of hostilities. Then the Chinese fleet surrounded the island, tens of thousands of soldiers crossed the Taiwan Strait on military landing ships and landed on the bridgehead.

So the victory over China will not be easy. The “aggressor” itself, of course, will suffer “terrible losses: more than 100 warships and tens of thousands of soldiers killed, wounded or captured. The scope of the PLA’s military defeat, CSIS spokesmen do not hold back their fantasies, “could jeopardize the power of the Chinese Communist Party.”

But in the battle for Taiwan, everyone will get it. According to the authors of the report, the US could lose hundreds of aircraft, two aircraft carriers and up to two dozen other ships. American bases on Guam will be destroyed. Taiwan’s economy has suffered significant damage. Japan will also suffer serious losses.

And here analysts make an unexpected, at first glance, somersault. Yes, we will win, they have no doubt, but they immediately call this victory … “Pyrrhic”. And they explain: in the long run, the United States may suffer more than the “defeated” Chinese – because of the damage to Washington’s global dominance in the world. “Other countries,” the clarification follows, “for example, Russia, North Korea or Iran, can use the US distraction to further their plans.” And how then can a weakened US military maintain a balance of power in Europe or the Middle East?

In short, although victory is guaranteed to us, it is better not to bring it to it. And for this it is necessary to avoid war altogether. Question – how? For the sake of this, it seems, CSIS analysts also tried. Remember the banal: if you want peace… In order for the war over Taiwan not to happen, the United States and its allies, the authors of the report discover America, must – of course! – Strengthen military deterrence. And this, first of all, means strengthening existing military bases and looking for new options for basing. And it is imperative to increase the arsenal of long-range missiles, especially anti-ship missiles, since the stocks of some of them are critically small …

Along the way, recommendations are given to Taiwan on how to strengthen the power of its armed forces, which have a glorious future. But this is already so, on the sidelines.

The main thing is indicated: there is no need to bring it to war, because it can thin out the American military power necessary to maintain world hegemony, but increasing the military presence around the world and building up the military potential of the United States is exactly what is needed. “Controlled chaos” in Washington has not been canceled, and in order to monitor it, power resources are needed.

You can try to argue with the authors of the report, but it will be a dialogue “through the wall” – they did it not to listen to possible opponents, but to justify the decisions to be made. But two remarks cannot be refrained from.

First. Why would China suddenly attack Taiwan in 2026? Yes, Washington has recently, through the sometimes mysterious mouth of its president, greatly muddied the question of whether it follows the principle of “one China”, not recognizing Taipei’s right to declare itself a sovereign country? Either Biden murmurs that the United States will defend Taiwan by military force, then again something that is not going to recognize its sovereignty. But CSIS analysts apparently ignore the political context of events on the island: the last local elections were won by the Kuomintang party, which is going to get along with Beijing. If she also wins next year’s presidential election, then the island can safely drift, without any wars, to the already proven formula “two systems – one country.”

And of course, the political and psychological reading of CSIS analytics: no matter how many options we lose, the “aggressor” always fails. True, the price of victory is sensitive … But we will not leave you without help, although we ourselves will stand aside for now. In a word: cut, Shura, cut… Or, as the report says, “If Taiwan surrenders before the US deploys its forces, everything else is useless.”

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