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Washington sees one scenario for Taiwan-China war

US authorities are trying to implement in Taiwan Ukrainian script, forcing the island government to buy American weapons suitable for asymmetric warfare. At the same time, the idea of ​​an imminent “Chinese invasion” is being instilled into the population of the island.

The newspaper writes about it The New York Times referring to “current and former US and Taiwan officials.”

According to insiders, the Russian special operation helped convince the Taiwan authorities that “a Chinese invasion in the coming years is now a potential danger” and that they need to buy “the right weapons that have already proven effective against a larger enemy at the expense of mobility and accuracy of attacks.

As an example, Taipei is APU experience. Apparently, this looks quite convincing to Taiwanese politicians and the military, since the president Tsai Ying-wen “is trying to orient his country’s armed forces towards asymmetric warfare and move towards buying a large number of mobile lethal weapons.”

This is done in order, on the advice of overseas friends, to “turn Taiwan into a ‘porcupine’ capable of deterring potential attacks from China.”

A State Department official told The New York Times that “weapons talks with Taiwan took place early in the Biden administration, and both governments are now learning the lessons learned from the war in Ukraine.

Situation “at the edge”

The geographical position of China and Taiwan, on the one hand, will complicate the beginning of the “invasion” of the island: Beijing will have to land troops, transporting them on ships across the Taiwan Strait, whose width is from 130 to 380 km.

Now both sides of the strait literally bristled with missiles aimed at each other.

The United States, in company with its allies, does not contribute to reducing tension either by regularly demonstrating force by introducing its warships one by one into the strait or cruising nearby.

Pumping up Taiwan with weapons is harder than Ukraine

The geographical position will complicate, in comparison with the same Ukraine, for the United States and its allies the supply of weapons to Taiwan. Based on this, Washington is considering the possibility of “accumulating a large amount of ammunition” on the island.

In 2019, the State Department authorized the sale of $2.2 billion worth of weapons to Taiwan, including 108 M1A2 Abrams tanks.

In 2022, the US State Department approved “arms deal” with an unrecognized island state for $ 95 million. Moreover, weapons will be supplied for this amount just for waging an “asymmetric war” despite the fact that Taipei insists that it will need “traditional systems to prepare for various war scenarios involving China”.

“We have adopted many of the recommendations from the United States, but we still need to have some space to prepare for the possibility of other, longer-term scenarios,” he said. Whose Chung, a security analyst at the National Policy Foundation in Taipei, noting that he is concerned that the war in Ukraine has forced Americans to dig even deeper “into the idea of ​​asymmetry without considering the specific needs of Taiwan.” “How can you ask us to take World War II era equipment to defend against China?”

Taiwan is starting to get suspicious

In recent weeks, Taiwanese officials have voiced their frustration with the US government and US arms makers, complaining about delivery delays and unfulfilled orders.

The Ministry of Defense of the island reported that two orders for weapons were postponed United States. One is the purchase of M109A6 Paladin self-propelled howitzers made by BAE Systems, which US officials say are being delayed due to insufficient production capacity.

“Ukraine has asked for regular deliveries of Javelin and Stinger missiles, and the Biden administration is providing them. But Taiwan has already signed a contract for the Stingers and paid for them,” Taipei is outraged.

Political scientist: In fact, China does not help Russia

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