Restrictions on the sale of fuel “in one hand” will be relaxed until the end of May, and it is possible to completely overcome the shortage closer to the middle of summer.
This forecast was made in a commentary to Ukrinform by Director of the A-95 Consulting Group Serhiy Kuyun.
To overcome the deficit fuel Ukraine, according to the expert, should rely primarily on supplies from neighboring countries – Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Hungary. This, among other things, will reduce logistics costs, which have already increased due to Russian aggression.
“Of course, overcoming the deficit will depend on whether it will be possible to agree with neighbors and properly organize logistics and resource provision. Because when our neighbors also lacked resources in March, companies contracted fuel even in Germany and the Netherlands. But now, I think, neighboring markets should be filled and, accordingly, the main flow of oil products to Ukraine will go through them,” Kuyun believes.
He hopes that quantitative restrictions on the domestic market will be eased by the end of May. “That is, if now most networks sell 5-10 liters per tank, and many gas stations do not work at all, then I think that by the end of the month there will be many more stations in operation, and the limits, although they will remain, will at least increase up to 20-30 liters. Which, in principle, especially against the current background, will be a normal option. I think it will be possible to completely overcome the deficit closer to the middle of summer,” predicts the director of the A-95 Consulting Group.
As reported, one of the consequences of Russian aggression was the fuel crisis in Ukraine. Since before the war, the country met a significant part of the demand for gasoline and diesel fuels through supplies from Russia and Belarus. Another 10% was imported from Lithuania (via Belarus), the same amount was imported by sea. Now these routes are lost. And it takes time to reorient the market to purchase fuel in Europe, in particular, because of problems with transportation. In addition, the enemy purposefully destroys fuel infrastructure facilities by attacking the storage bases of filling stations, product pipelines and production facilities of Ukrainian refineries.