News

The Russians took out loans for 27 trillion rubles: what does it threaten

For 11 months of 2022, the volume of loans taken by Russians reached a record 27 trillion rubles. This is plus 2.5 trillion per year, economically not the easiest. The figures for the whole of 2022 have not yet been calculated by the Central Bank. But it is clear that they will be even more record-breaking. Since December was marked by a record volume of mortgage issuance – already since 2012, since which such statistics on housing loans have been kept. Plus 7.8% compared to December last year.

Why such figures – despite the fact that analysts of almost everything and everyone are talking about a fall in effective demand? According to the Central Bank, more than 80% of the increase in loans – those same plus 2.5 trillion – was provided by mortgages. Which is understandable. Car loans were blown away in 2022, and loans for smartphones, washing machines, and payday loans will still not give such figures. Mortgage continued to be actively supported by the state through preferential programs. Actually, experts explain the sharp surge of interest in it at the end of the year by the desire to have time to take advantage of mortgages for new buildings at 7%. The program was eventually extended for another year and a half, but with a rate of 8%.

Isn’t there a credit bubble waiting for us with such records, especially the mortgage one? Data from the Central Bank on overdue loans so far does not cause much concern (see “Only numbers”). The total amount of delinquency revolves around a trillion rubles and in 2022 increased slightly compared to the total amount of loans issued.

But maybe there will be more? What awaits us there in 2023?

– So far, there are really no awesome delays. The Central Bank is doing some work with banks, and it is bearing fruit. And if things in the economy do not radically worsen in comparison with the current situation, then it’s not worth expecting some kind of explosive growth in loan defaults, ”the head of the Department of Mortgage Housing Lending and Real Estate Financial Instruments of the Financial University commented on the situation to KP. Alexander Tsyganov.

According to experts, the most dangerous mortgage loans without a down payment with a very low rate like 0.01% in the first six months or a year. That is, when a person gets involved in serious financial obligations for many years without any investments at all at the very initial stage. The risk of doing this “without thinking” and then finding out that “I couldn’t, I couldn’t” is really great. But the Central Bank has repeatedly opposed such joint programs of developers and banks. And not only spoke, but also made changes to the mechanisms of financial regulation, which immediately reduces the interest of banks in such games.

By themselves, the conditions of preferential mortgages with state support are not so risky. All such programs involve a down payment, which analysts say makes the decision to go into debt much more conscious.

– I would pay attention to this moment. Among the employed population, the share of state employees is growing. And this is a significant percentage of those who take out a mortgage under one or another preferential program, – explains Alexander Tsyganov. – And their income is quite predictable and stable.

ONLY NUMBERS

This is how the total volume of loans issued to citizens in 2022 grew, trillion rubles.

As of February 1, 25.3

As of April 1 25.8

As of June 1 25.5

As of August 1, 25.8

As of October 1, 26.5

As of December 1, 27.1

And this is how the overdue debt changed, trillion rubles.

As of February 1 0.97

As of April 1 0.98

For June 1st 1

As of August 1 1.02

As of October 1 1.07

As of December 1 1.08

(Data from the Central Bank)

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Back to top button