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The perfect storm: the participants of the APEC summit in Bangkok predicted the world economy the strongest shocks

Belousov called the main problems of the world economy

Belousov called the main problems of the world economy

A photo: REUTERS

The next few years will be the perfect storm for the global economy. Negative trends that have been accumulating for a long time will “shoot out”. This was stated to journalists by the First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov, who headed the Russian delegation at the APEC summit that ended on November 19 in Bangkok.

“Now we are just beginning to understand the severity of the problems that are emerging in the world,” Belousov noted.

According to him, the crisis in the global economy will be further aggravated by climate problems and unresolved problems of technological development.

Belousov named the main problems of the world economy.

one. Rise of protectionism in world trade and blocking the rules that were associated with the WTO.

“The dispute resolution body has practically stopped working,” Belousov said.

2. Huge amount of debt.

– This debt overhang blocks the possibility of a significant increase in interest rates, tightening monetary policy, which are standard tools to suppress inflation, – said Belousov.

He noted that the increase in interest rates will lead to a sharp increase in the cost of debt servicing and this may lead to a chain of bankruptcies of the largest banks.

The IMF has already calculated that about 30% of the global banking system may be in crisis. True, this is the worst-case scenario.

3. Rising prices. First, prices for metals rose, then for gas. Then there was a reduction in the production of mineral fertilizers and their prices also jumped. As a result, grain prices have risen.

As Andrei Belousov noted, the rise in prices is of a long-term nature.

– All this turbulence that occurs in combination of these factors has led to the fact that the markets have come into a very strong movement. And this movement is now chaotic and indefinite. As a result, investors are losing their bearings, – Belousov explained what is happening in the global economy.

According to Belousov, at the APEC summit there were proposals to quickly end the special operation in Ukraine.

– This, apparently, according to the authors, should return prices to their places. The second suggestion is to raise interest rates by banks in order to curb inflation. And this sharply crushes the possibility of an investment exit from the current situation, Belousov said.

He noted that the tools currently being proposed to overcome the crisis are clearly insufficient and incommensurate with the scale of the problems that have arisen.

“This kind of tools and actions are absolutely inadequate,” Belousov said.

Participants of the APEC summit agreed that the problems that have arisen should be solved only together. Belousov called the removal of all kinds of barriers one of the main conditions.

“They have spawned a lot,” Belousov remarked.

We are talking about barriers to trade, and financial restrictions, and barriers to the spread of technology. Why are only one sanctions imposed against Russia.

The second necessary condition for overcoming the global economic crisis Belousov called the restoration of confidence.

“It will take a very long time, but no rules that we come up with will not work if they are not based on the mutual trust of partners,” Belousov emphasized.

He called a balanced climate agenda the third condition. It should not hinder the recovery of economic growth.

“Today, such attempts are being made, and we see it in a number of areas – the so-called carbon regulators are essentially hidden, and sometimes open protectionism,” Belousov said.

By the way, Belousov admitted that at the APEC summit he had “quite confidential communication” with representatives of a number of unfriendly countries. True, there were no representatives of the United States among them.

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