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The paradox of the annulment of the PASO: it seeks to fissure JxC but shakes the ruling party and undresses the discourse

alberto fernandez wado de pedro
Smiles of other times. Wado de Pedro exposed the pressures for Alberto Fernández to consider the annulment of the PASO

The first movements to assess the chances of the PASO annulment project outlined two propaganda arguments and a political goal. Speech: save about 25,000 million pesos in times of adjustment and avoid the “people” at least one electoral shift. Political move: place in a crisis zone Together for Change, which should settle its domestic battles without this mechanism. The reality for now says otherwise. First of all, the initiative causes new disputes within the ruling party. And the same bare that it is another chapter of the power struggle and not a gesture designed in the social wear due to the crisis.

The last signal was given by hard-line Kirchnerism, after assimilating the move that the “territorial chiefs” of traditional Peronism promoted in the first place. The PJ governors and many mayors -especially the GBA- reject the primaries and seek to shield their local power for the coming electoral challenge. Out and in. That complicates in some districts the aspirations of The Campora and other competitors, but the panorama would force them to close ranks. Above all, in the Buenos Aires provincecenter of gravity in the plans Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner.

Anyway, the speculations are not linear. The most forced: a move that would allow Kirchnerism to make a gesture to the governors, without expectation that the project will advance in Congress, to be in better conditions to negotiate legislators in each province. And at the same time, to expose again the meager support of Alberto Fernandez, contrary to the network of provincial chiefs who was imagined as their main support. The latter is unclear from the perspective of some governor that could be entered in the fight for the presidential candidacy.

It may interest you: From the paritarias to the PASO: the ruling party adds issues of political tension and puts its discourse in crisis

On that board crossed by conflicting interests and misgivings, the struggle for the primary elections blurs CFK of what she intended as part of the game of head of the ruling party and harsh critic of the Government. Apart from the judicial issue – which will return to the first line in an almost exclusive way, as the definition in the Cause road-, the former president prefers to affirm her charges in matters of social concern. She did it recently in the face of the growth of the indigencewith claims for the rise in prices in the field of feedingand it has just done so with the rejection of the increase authorized for the prepaid medicine.

The President believes that this arm wrestling for the fate of the PASO would allow him to gain some political oxygen. The situation is really strong: the governors press and Kirchnerism gets on that message to put pressure on olives. Alberto Fernández does not impose strategies, he resists. Some who know him say that he really believes in re-election project. In any case, lowering himself from that position would further aggravate the image of deterioration that is now deepened by the departures of ministers and their replacements.

All eyes are on the numbers deputiesbut the real focus of the ruling party is in the presidency of the Senate. It will be seen if CFK finally plays all its weight to try to unify positions. Initial accounts say that half a dozen deputies of the Front of All maintain their rejection of repeal of the STEP: five respond to the official social movements and one, to Olivos.

together for change deputies political trial alberto fernandez
First line of JxC in Deputies: reject the official move and count the votes

Will CFK really go deep? They let it be known that yes, but that is the central question of these hours in the official media. Also, in the opposition. If it does, the next question will be to what extent is resistance maintained or does it give way to negotiation in some specific districts, basically in Buenos Aires. Seen this way, the former president would be calibrating how to move her chips, in speed because the legislative times do not give much room.

So far, the project formally presented at the Chamber of Deputies bears the signatures of the Rio Negro allies of the ruling party. Another linked to the conglomerate of Peronist governors. An indication will be if the process is started in commissions: it is not a formal step, but a political decision.

That will finish triggering reaction from all opposing spaces and not just PvC. The Federal Interblock and especially the members of the Cordoban PJ, on the one hand. And the “libertarians”, which again face a scenario of high exposure.

It may interest you: The inmates anticipate the electoral year against the grain of the crisis and a risky image of transition appears

The different sectors of JxC would have already anticipated and repeated their rejection of the repeal of the primaries. They see it difficult for the project to advance, but they are attentive to the outcome of the tensions in the ruling party. They admit that everything could go from a skirmish, focused on the other side, to a true political battle.

The opposition usually exposes its own internal issues in the face of measures that affect or define management issues. There are various examples, from Fiscal Pact until the recent session on the Budget 2023. In the latter case, the facilitation of the quorum and voting in general exposed divisions, gestures to the audience, and governance considerations. On the other hand, there was a unified rejection of the delegation of the handling of withholdings in the Executive.

Many of the internal cracks of JxC are minimized by its leaders with a practical argument rather than substance about the political profiles at stake: the STEP they would end up ordering candidatures and spaces of power. The fall of the primaries would imply a serious problem: the challenge would be transparency and participation with some alternative mechanism. That would not imply automatic gain for the ruling party

JxC is taken by the positions for next year and it does not seem clear that there is a plan B. The acceleration is visible especially in the PRO: the role of Mauricio Macrithe candidatures of Horacio Rodriguez Larreta Y Patricia Bullrichto which he threatens to join Maria Eugenia Vidal. The UCR exposes a response in these hours, with an act to remember the electoral triumph of Alfonsin that brings together all its aspects and places on stage Gerardo Morales Y Martin Lousteau.

That’s the big picture. The STEP came into discussion just ten months after the first shift in the 2023 schedule. Difficult to debate on the best system of selection of candidates.

Keep reading:

The acts of October 17 exceed the internal reading and anticipate a strong signal for the economy

Poverty and electoral calculation: CFK’s main concern is to maintain its base in Buenos Aires

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