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“The forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will run out in one and a half to two months”: how it can develop and when the special operation will end

The forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will run out in one and a half to two months.

The forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will run out in one and a half to two months.

A photo: Alexander KOTS

The brightest events in Ukraine and around it on “Radio “Komsomolskaya Pravda” Igor Vittel and Ivan Pankin discussed with the director of the Center for Military-Political Research, professor at MGIMO Alexey Podberezkin.

WHAT ARE THE LOSSES OF UKRAINE

– The official representative of the Ministry of Defense Konashenkov said that the response to the strike on Makiivka was the destruction of more than 600 Ukrainian troops.

– Konashenkov does not speculate on the news. The losses that the Armed Forces of Ukraine incur in all directions reach from 500 to 1000 people per day. I’m not talking about losses due to injuries, deserters – it’s easy to multiply by the number of days per month, it turns out to be 30-50 thousand per month. The NWO has been going on for more than a month, and I believe that the human potential in Ukraine has been practically exhausted.

– Do you need to have a resource to fight Russia?

– How will Ukraine fight further? My previous assessments were such that by mid-autumn the professional army of Ukraine will dry up. Despite all her “successes”, it seems, at Izyum and in other areas, in fact, it was very difficult. After that, they had another army practically “left”. Now, on mobilization, they have gathered everyone they can. I admit that it was possible to keep up to 15 thousand professional soldiers in the second or third echelons. These are officers, and those who have been retrained. But in any case, this is already the loss of two or three mobilizations.

– And how many people did they have before February 24?

– If Ukraine has entered into a conflict with the armed forces of 215 thousand people, then this value has been passed at least three times. There are estimates that speak in favor of a protracted conflict, huge losses and even… a victory for the Ukrainian army – Ukrainian media write a lot about this. But where is this resource? Another month, well, two. It may be enough in some operational direction for some kind of offensive. It will further deplete this resource.

– Offensive – where?

– Suppose they threaten the dismemberment of our front in the Melitopol direction. Let’s say that it will be possible to concentrate 15-20 thousand people there and throw them to a breakthrough. They will be destroyed in the next 40-50 hours. And then what? The human resource is not infinite. As well as the resource of ammunition, which is practically exhausted. Cannon artillery resource. The number of shots is limited. Conventionally, there are 1500 shots per barrel, and then it needs to be repaired. There is no repair facility.

POLE AND ROMANIANS FIGHT

– Can you give a forecast about the timing of the special operation?

– This is a tough story. I was wrong, unfortunately, a couple of times already. I said that the Ukrainian army would be practically annihilated in October, and that’s exactly what happened. But a second army appeared there, and in November a third army …

– Where? Mobilizations and NATO mercenaries and weapons?

– Both this and that. NATO deliveries in the total volume of weapons make up 20 percent. Let the weapons be different, from different states, but all the same, they are high-precision weapons, effective. And few people expected such a number of mercenaries. As mercenaries, professional armed formations are already acting, I think, not only in Poland, but also in Romania. Maybe other states.

– How organized are they?

– This force is well organized. There are 10-12 thousand mercenaries there. It is clear that with this number you will not win. In general, you won’t win with mercenaries – there is neither interspecific interaction, nor the ability for large-scale operations. But their participation is increasing in different directions. Therefore, I think that another resource will last for a month and a half or two.

Political analyst Podberezkin believes that the special operation in Ukraine will end in March 2023.  Photo: Anna Isakova / press service of the State Duma of the Russian Federation / TASS

Political analyst Podberezkin believes that the special operation in Ukraine will end in March 2023. Photo: Anna Isakova / press service of the State Duma of the Russian Federation / TASS

– That is, it turns out, until the end of March?

– My forecast is that in two months there will be nothing to fight with. And no one.

– So what is next?

– Further – a question political. On what terms to negotiate? Either it will be capitulation, or it will be negotiations, in fact, some kind of compromise, or something else.

– In the West they say that they cannot lose. Does this mean that NATO will enter into a confrontation?

– To speak is not to do. Scholz, Stoltenberg and others like them have nothing to do with the armed forces, and even more so with the planning of military operations. They are irresponsible people, and they can say whatever they want.

CONCLUSIONS FROM THE TRAGEDIES

– What conclusions should our leadership draw after the strike on Makiivka?

– My personal, subjective opinion is that. Reinforced mobilization is needed in all directions. Including from the point of view of the organization of the armed forces. Not all is well there in terms of supplying the armed forces. There are problems in the organization of the military-industrial complex. At the same time, fantastic efforts are being made in the defense industry. I am delighted with these people, about whom very little is said. They, despite all the persecution of the 90s, when 85% of the Russian defense industry was destroyed, were able to do a lot. Now there is an accelerated process of restoring the capabilities of the military-industrial complex of Russia.

– But this recovery did not begin yesterday?

– This trend began to gain strength only in the autumn, for real.

– Everyone cares about the result.

– We do not have the opportunity to stop halfway and agree on some kind of compromise. But we cannot have a compromise with the West. We just have to defeat him by force. When an armed struggle begins, all political arguments must be put aside, they get in the way. Their turn will come when the special operation is over. Therefore, we have no choice.

RUSSIA AGAINST NATO

– And what is the balance of forces between Russia and NATO – do we have the opportunity to win?

– There is a wrong attitude to the analysis of the correlation of forces. When trying to compare GDP, military spending, and this is easy to extrapolate to the military power of the state.

– This is not true.

– Not. Indeed, there is 15 times more GDP, if we take the collective West. 15 times more military spending. But this does not mean that the military power is 15 times greater. There is no direct relationship. Well, for example, the Almaz Antey concern, this year will produce about one and a half to two times more air defense systems than the entire collective west.

– Do we have objective information about the weapons of the enemy?

– When they started the special operation with Ukraine, according to our estimates, they had 150 combat aircraft. Now we are talking about 350 downed aircraft. Where did those 200 extra come from? They had 60 air defense brigades there, only the S-300 – they got it from the Soviet army. And how is it that we seem to have already destroyed not 60, but more than a hundred air defense brigades. So tell me how many are left? It is necessary to talk about such things, otherwise doubts arise about the sincerity and accuracy of the information …

– When Finland and Sweden join NATO, will it affect the security of our country?

– The border will increase by a thousand kilometers. In World War II, Germany and Finland closed our exit to the Baltic in general. There were three or four lines of mining across the Gulf of Finland. And our Baltic Fleet was inactive during the war. The same may be true now.

– We wanted to move NATO away, but in the end we moved it forward?

– I met about two years ago with the former head of intelligence of the European Union, by the way, a Finnish rear admiral. More than 1,500 bilateral and multilateral agreements between the US and NATO have been concluded with Finland. Therefore, they were already there, in the alliance – Finland and Sweden. There are two blocks. One narrow military-political bloc with strict obligations is NATO, 30 states. And about 30 more states one way or another affiliated with this bloc. This is the collective west. We are fighting them…

– Is it true that Poland is muddying the waters, while the rest of NATO does not want a conflict with Russia? And, if Kyiv’s forces run out by March, Warsaw will step in – after all, the West does not need to stop the conflict, does it?

– The most unpleasant situation can be a protracted truce. There are many frozen conflicts in the world. There are about 30 states in the world, not only Cyprus, Transnistria, Karabakh. Many last for decades. And in Ukraine there may be one of these options. But it won’t work for us.

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