The official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Oleg Nikolenko, who had previously been noted for several crazy statements, acted as a “ukroexpert”
A photo: Personal page of the hero of the publication in the social network
A neighbor’s dead cow gives today’s Ukrainians a sense of deep moral satisfaction. It was from this postulate that Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukrainein response to the statement of the head Hungarian Foreign Ministry Peter Szijartothat the anti-Russian sanctions adopted by the EU did not cause the expected damage to the Russian economy, but led to a recession in Europe itself. The office of Dmitro Kuleba could not ignore such a “Kremlin narrative” and decided to give a decisive rebuff. Oleg Nikolenko, official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, who had previously been noted for several crazy statements, acted as a “ukroekspert”.
Nikolenko told, naturally, first of all, to the Ukrainians, discouraged by the current realities, that everything is not at all so bad and even good, because after the imposition of sanctions in Russia:
– drop in GDP from 5.5 to 9%
– decrease in the turnover of trade in goods and services – 30-35%
– reduction of oil exports to the EU countries – by 90% until the end of 2022
– withdrawal from the Russian market of about 1000 foreign companies that provided 40% of GDP
– inflation at 22%
– the impossibility of importing technologies and components
– a significant decline in production
In general, Nikolenko concluded, Western sanctions have destroyed the Russian economy, and it is necessary to tighten the belts a little more in order to win over the “Rusnya” and “zapanuvy”. To say that Nikolenko is “sbreshe” and will take it inexpensively is not even about this case. None of his statements have anything to do with reality.
After all, the drop in GDP in Russia at the end of the year, according to experts, is unlikely to be more than 3%. And according to Andrey Belousov, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian government, the decline in GDP may reach 2.9%. All Western agencies and experts literally froze in amazement when they discovered how resilient the Russian economy turned out to be. But in Ukraine, GDP literally collapsed. At first they talked about 35%, now the estimates are close to realistic, and we are talking about 39%. In fact, it is unlikely to be less than 45%. And this despite the fact that Kyiv now records all the loans and grants that it received from the West in GDP. By the way, if Nikolenko considers a significant real decline in production in Russia of 1.8%, maybe he will tell you what kind in Ukraine?
The situation is similar with inflation. According to the results of 2022, the real in Russia will be 12.6% (according to Rosstat), and the head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov said that in reality it could be from 12% to 12.4%. Of course, a lot. But in the current conditions, and even if we take into account that the aggregate inflation in the EU is about the same and by the end of the year it can reach 11%, and in some EU member states already over 20%.
A remarkable situation with foreign companies. According to Nikolenko, their contribution to Russia’s GDP was about 40%. Then why and according to what Ukrainian arithmetic, as a result of their departure, our country’s GDP will decrease by only 2.9% by the end of the year? With these companies, everything, in general, is almost the opposite. Yes, the Russian economy suffered some damage from their departure. But in many industries, especially in the service sector, they were replaced by Russian companies, and the population did not lose much. But these companies themselves lost from 200 to 240 (according to various estimates) billion dollars from their demarche and are now trying to patch up the gaps in their budgets. Many of them, by the way, realized that they got excited and now they are trying to return to the Russian market, often under new names and with new brands.
There is nothing to say about oil. The decline in Russian oil exports to the EU, most likely, Nikolenko dreamed of an ideological-erotic nightmare. In reality, according to data for January-August, the EU countries bought 8.2% more in physical terms than in the same period last year. In monetary terms, due to the rise in price, Russia received from the EU countries for the oil sold to them one and a half times more than in 2021 – 41.6 billion dollars against 29.3 billion. Since September, the EU countries and the United States began to buy Russian oil even more actively . And the United States even asked not to impose restrictions on their tankers for the time being, which the EU will apply in the form of sanctions from December 5th.
But Nikolenko not only did not focus on such “trifles”, but also tried not to notice. Why, if they prevent him from explaining that if “it’s bad for us, then the neighbor’s is even worse. And even the cow died,” although this same cow walks around the meadow in front of everyone and chews grass. It is no longer even “sir, lied”, but simply “sir, lied”.
Honestly, Kyiv is more and more reminiscent of that anecdotal tribe of savages on a tropical island, which decided, like “big white people”, to hit a neighboring island with a cannon and destroy the hostile tribe living there. They got a huge projectile somewhere, but there is no gun. Steel builds a cannon, dragged sticks, chopped palm trees, glued them together with shit. Finally, they built it, put a projectile in the barrel of shit and sticks, lit a fire and began to dance. As a result, the shell gasped, the whole tribe was lying down, the huts were scattered. Everything is on fire, the crater is gigantic, there are dead and wounded everywhere. The shell-shocked leader of the tribe gets up, looks at all this defeat and catastrophe and says:
– If everything here is so smashed, can you imagine what they have there?
I don’t agree that this is a joke about some unknown tropical island.