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Putin’s instinct in the face of a new humiliation: massacre civilians and escalate the conflict

Vladimir Putin indicated that he will continue with the attacks on the Ukrainian civilian population after the Crimean bridge was sabotaged by kyiv (AFP)
Vladimir Putin indicated that he will continue with the attacks on the Ukrainian civilian population after the Crimean bridge was sabotaged by kyiv (AFP)

He believed that he would begin the journey of his 70 years with a certain calm, without major shocks, beyond the bad news that the disastrous campaign in Ukraine gave him daily. However, to Vladimir Putin they brought him the part: a section of the bridge crimea had exploded and it would take several weeks to normalize the flow between the mainland and the Ukrainian peninsula seized from Kyiv in 2014.

It was imperative then to resort to a rapid response. Y Putin ordered this Monday a massive missile attack on the Ukrainian capital and nine other cities: Lviv, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, Poltava, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia Y Mykolayiv. A massacre that targeted civilians and hit critical infrastructure.

Russian military sources celebrated the decision. They maintain, however, that this maneuver should have been carried out before and not in response to a lethal blow by the Ukrainian forces that cut the land link in the kerch strait. But they also clarify that the effects will not be instantaneous. Igor girkinex-military and Russian intelligence officer, ultranationalist, accused of war crimes and sanctioned by Europeis a critical voice of the current campaign.

The numerous attacks on critical infrastructure in the so-called “Ukraine” will undoubtedly have an effect and will have repercussions on the state of the Ukrainian front and the Ukrainian armed forces as a whole. But the effect will not be instantaneous at all and will not begin to have repercussions until several weeks later.”, he said on his channel Telegram where it is followed daily by 750 thousand users.

In a televised message, Putin promised to continue with this type of attack but with one exception: this time he didn’t blame West for the sabotage on the bridge. The responsibility was placed absolutely on the Ukrainian intelligence agencies. Why did she change her speech? The boss of kremlin is before a new narrative? Or was it just an oversight? We will have to wait if it was just a slip or a message between the lines that someone will have to interpret.

The moment missiles hit the Glass Bridge in kyiv

Some analysts believe that this speech would imply that Moscow will only escalate your war against Ukraine, without adding new goals to your plans. “If attempts to carry out terrorist attacks on our territory continue, the measures taken by Russia will be harsh and in their scale will correspond to the level of threats posed to the Russian Federation. No one should have any doubts about it,” he threatened. Putin this Monday.

Who also celebrated the rain of high-precision missiles was one of the strongest supporters of the head of the Russian regime. the chechen Ramzan Kadyrov -who promised to send his minor children to the front- is anxious that the escalation that began this Monday will not stop.

We warn you (Volodymyr) Zelensky, that Russia hasn’t really started yet, so stop complaining like you’re a crackpot: better run before a missile hits you. Now I am one hundred percent satisfied with the special military operation, ”he wrote in Telegram. Kadyrov, however, is zigzagging in its reflections. Maybe tomorrow his mood will change.

The truth is that the hard wing of the nationalists they push so that Putin multiply the efforts – in own young lives and resources – and crush Ukraine massacring its population and its infrastructure now that winter is coming. But some of those nationalists could be speculating on something further into the future: that failure pushes the current president out of the kremlin.

At the same time, his staunchest ally, Xi jinping He asked to de-escalate the conflict. The Chinese regime sees that Moscow is bogged down in Ukraine and that its long military failure could drag down its economy even though it is keeping Russian natural resources -oil and, very soon, gas- at a very low price. “China has maintained communications with all parties, and we are willing to play a constructive role in de-escalating the situation.”, he said this Monday Mao noneone of the spokesmen for the Foreign Ministry beijing.

This is also another of the crossroads at which the gas czar. Putin knows that he has a divided internal front: on the one hand, the nationalists who demand that he continue the bloodletting at any price and his superego that prevents you from turning back; on the other, military commanders tired of his meddling, advisers who have already begun to openly contradict him, and disgruntled oligarchs.

Instead, the external picture is increasingly narrow. China and India They want the conflict to end as soon as possible. They are your governments, beijing Y New Delhithose who see how international prices increase and must feed almost 3 billion people altogether. How much longer will they put up with Putin?

To all this, far from causing intimidation, the waves of missiles against civilians will unite the Ukrainian population more. Its military forces increase and international aid grows hand in hand with the state Joined Y Kingdom Unitedwhere thousands of soldiers are trained who return prepared to fight for their land.

The calendar, meanwhile, advances. The cold too. Soon, moving around the territory will be very complicated for both countries and progress will be slow until early April. The next two weeks will then be key to seeing how the map will stop for at least some time. There artillery and precision guided missiles will again be essential.

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