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Prices for apartments in Moscow on the secondary market in autumn 2022, forecast

In Moscow, the demand for renting such apartments fell by almost 50% in a matter of days.

In Moscow, the demand for renting such apartments fell by almost 50% in a matter of days.

A photo: Svetlana MAKOVEEVA

Realtors are worried. Over the past week, many of their clients have sharply changed their minds about renting or buying something. This is especially true for expensive housing: in Moscow, the demand for renting such apartments fell by almost 50% in a matter of days.

Purchase and sale transactions also rained down: buyers began to postpone them. They also tell something completely unbelievable: allegedly the sellers of Moscow housing began to dump. These are those who escaped from the mobilization and now want to urgently sell the apartment so that they have something to live on abroad.

KP, with the help of experts, figured out what was really happening with real estate.

“EVERYONE WANTS TO RENT”

Let’s start with the lease and the capital that is desired by many – at least it used to be so.

– The situation on the rental market in Moscow for those wishing to rent something was not the best even before mobilization. Since February, the demand has been steadily declining, while the supply of apartments, on the contrary, has increased. In September, landlords in Moscow offered 80% more apartments than in February, Vladimir Shchekin, co-owner of Rodina Group, told KP.

According to the expert, more remote jobs have appeared, the employment situation has generally worsened due to the departure of foreign companies. There were expectations that everything would gradually return to normal. But they didn’t materialize.

– Now in Moscow the number of those wishing to rent housing is 10% less than at the beginning of September, and 15% lower than at the end of September 2021. The cost of rent has decreased by about 5%, – says Vladimir Shchekin. – And in the coming months, we expect a recession in the rental market.

TAKE A PAUSE

“People are rushing about, people have a lot of rash actions,” says Roman Vikhlyantsev, member of the council of the Moscow Realtors Guild.

It’s about buying and selling.

– On the one hand, someone removes apartments from sale. On the other hand, the category “urgent buyout” – this is when you need to sell an apartment as quickly as possible – a few days after the announcement of partial mobilization, it tripled, – says the realtor.

Many buyers have taken a break – they are waiting for how events will develop.

– There were also unusually many who wanted to give a discount of 5 – 15% for the speedy sale of real estate, – says Nadezhda Korkka, managing partner of Metrium. – These are citizens who are going to emigrate. Most of the apartments with a discount have good liquidity (i.e., the discount is not given because the housing has some flaws). But I believe that in a few weeks the number of such proposals will come to naught.

Banks add fuel to the fire of the general confusion.

– There are more loan denials, some banks told us that temporarily stop approving loans to men military age or will approve “through one”. And in some they warned that they would raise rates due to increased risks, – says Roman Vikhlyantsev.

– Most of the buyers who have already received approval from the mortgage bank, still determined to complete the deal, because they are afraid of a sharp rise in interest rates on loans, as happened in the spring – says Vladimir Shchekin.

What is really happening with real estate.

What is really happening with real estate.

A photo: Ekaterina MARTINOVICH

“TWO CAPITALS RAGE”

According to analysts, the desire to change places in connection with the mobilization mainly affected the capitals – Moscow and St. Petersburg. In the depths of Russia, there have been no significant changes in the rental market.

– More panic is seen in home sales. In the southern regions and Sochi, there are cases when those who urgently needed to leave their homeland try to sell apartments with a discount of 30-40%, – said Valery Kostrenkov, an expert in real estate investment.

And some of them see potential home buyers in the mobilized in the future. After all, they were promised a solid allowance – especially if you look at it through the eyes of residents of places where a salary of 40 thousand rubles is a lot.

– I do not rule out that the authorities will reformat the military mortgage program in order to attract as many people as possible to the army. Demand for certain civilian specialists will surely grow, who will also be encouraged to be stimulated by affordable mortgages, – predicts Vladimir Shchekin.

“It is too early to talk about any trends,” says Alexander Tsyganov, head of the Department of Mortgage Housing Lending and Real Estate Financial Instruments of the Financial University. – Someone will decide what to sell. Someone – that soon everything will become cheaper and you have to wait. And someone will want to buy as soon as possible, just in case, because, “if they are mobilized, in which case all debts will be written off, and the apartment will remain with their relatives.” The trends are contradictory.

INSTEAD OF AFTERWORD

“Demand is falling even without mobilization”

In general, experts do not rule out that in the future, a “price correction” awaits us in the housing market. Under this wording lies a sad fact for sellers: the price tag will have to be reduced.

– It’s not even about mobilization, – enumerates the reasons for the vice-president of the Russian Guild of Realtors Konstantin Aprelev. – Back in December last year, there was a trend to reduce demand. It was caused by two reasons. The first is the significant rise in prices that occurred in the last two years before. The second is the reduction of jobs and incomes of the population, despite the fact that the mortgage rate has risen. And this year, this trend has only taken hold.

Aprelev suggests recalling 2014 with its rather modest, by today’s standards, sanctions. Then, after three to six months from the beginning of the crisis in most regions, real estate prices began to decline, which lasted a year and a half. According to the analyst, now the situation is worse. Uncertainty is growing. Many are simply afraid to get into a mortgage for 20-30 years.

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