Political scientist Shkolnikov believes that the West is preparing a second front against Russia in Central Asia

Secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev.

Secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev.


At a meeting today in Sevastopol, Secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev said that Washington and London cannot calm down because of the fear of losing their hegemony and are trying to ignite more and more conflicts, including along the perimeter of such nuclear powers as Russia and China. “With these conflicts, the United States plans to solve all its economic problems, including a huge public debt – more than 30 trillion dollars,” he added.

One of the most likely territories where the West can provoke another military adventure is Central Asia. From it, there are chances to deliver a sensitive blow to Russia, China, and Iran. How big is the risk of a political explosion in this region and what needs to be done to prevent it? Radio “Komsomolskaya Pravda” (97.2FM) Andrey Shkolnikov, a political scientist and specialist in geostrategy, spoke with columnist Sergei Mardan.

– Why, in your opinion, should threats be expected from the region of the Russian underbelly?

– In Central Asia, I see a greater threat than in Ukraine. Several tens of millions of people live there, this is a very poor, socially tired population. very close to Afghanistan. A few thousand militants are enough, and there are enough radicals from ISIS (the organization is banned in the Russian Federation. – Ed.) – Uighurs, Kazakhs, Kyrgyz, Uzbeks – who can cross the border with the former Soviet republics and start setting fire to them. According to the most conservative estimates, the proportion of Salafis-Wahhabis among the Muslims of Central Asia already exceeds 20%. And the harder, the more tense the social situation will be there, the more the locals will have a demand for justice, which, in their opinion, the “warriors of Islam” will be able to provide. This is difficult to resist, the situation may develop as it did in Syria, when several hundred people captured large cities.

But behind this invasion will be the Anglo-Saxons and Turks. In Ukraine, the West is at war with us through the hands of Ukrainians, and there it is going to do it with the help of Islamists, both aliens and locals.

– Previously, Kazakhstan seemed to be an island of stability in the region. Now the situation is changing.

– Kazakhstan has been trying to live in the logic of a multi-vector approach for many years. They sold a significant part of their resources, assets to the Anglo-Saxons and in fact did not control anything inside. It suited them. We add here the elite contradictions are very serious. Here and zhuzes, and the growing Islamic factor. While Nazarbayev was in power, he somehow balanced it. Yes, perhaps not in the best way, but in fact he managed to dodge between the trickles of rain.

But today multi-vector policy has stopped working. Kazakhstan always forgets about geography. But its immediate neighbors – Russia and China – are now in the same boat in their policy towards Astana. It almost went up in flames at the beginning of this year, when, in fact, there was an opening of secret network structures – Turkish and British. But with the help of the CSTO forces, by the way, they managed to clean them up. But, apparently, it was only a rehearsal, “reconnaissance in force”, so to speak. And now Westerners and Turks are trying in every way to seize control of Central Asia, to destabilize it. Turkey, for example, does not need these republics at all, they see the creation of a large Turkic Khaganate in their place. In the understanding of Ankara, Turks and Turks are one and the same.

– Does the President of Kazakhstan Tokayev understand these risks?

– I don’t think so. They proceed from the fact that in previous years they managed to slip through, come to an agreement, and in these years they will come to an agreement. Like, this is the east – we will wind through, we will find a common language with everyone. There is no understanding that one cannot sit on several chairs any longer.

Yes, and within the country it is necessary to behave more principled. The elite contradictions there are many times worse than ours. If we have a lot of Western-oriented people, but their overall energy is weak, then they are a powerful clan there. The leadership of Kazakhstan needs to take tough measures, to clean up dangerous elements as much as possible. If this is not done now, then one can only sympathize. Salvation won’t work.

– Is Russia ready to rebuff the attempts of the West to set fire to Central Asia? Or do we not have the strength to deal on two fronts?

– We, in my opinion, also do not have a clear understanding of how events will develop. We are also trying to negotiate with different “partners”. Plus, we very often try to judge others by ourselves. In the Russian tradition – you gave your word, conceptual agreements must be fulfilled. In the Anglo-Saxon, as long as decisions are not rigidly fixed on paper, conversations mean nothing at all, promise anything. Think back to the history of NATO expansion. The Turkic political culture is characterized by all sorts of attempts to go around sharp corners. A classic example is Erdogan, who is pursuing this policy.

We help the former Soviet republics of Central Asia a lot. On the other hand, we are trying to warn the West against attempts to open a “second front” against us, because, of course, we do not want everything to explode there now. But we must understand that the Anglo-Saxons bit the bit, they need to sharply weaken us. And not only out of fear that their “Kyiv card” will be beaten. In early 2020, when the pandemic began, the world was entering a new Great Depression. The fall charts have been going one to one since 1929. Now the situation is the same again. Everything is reminiscent of the financial crisis of 2008 – the situation as a month and a half before the collapse of the largest US financial institution Lehman Brothers. And now the world’s leading bank Credit Suisse (its shares are now at 54%) and the French Societe Generale are on the verge of bankruptcy.

Plus the unknown situation with the US elections. If the Democrats lose at least one chamber, and there are huge chances for this, then the policy of the United States will sharply reduce subjectivity, they will begin to go into an internal struggle. Then they will not care about Russia at all.

The bloody states need to weaken Russia (and China) before these events. Therefore, we must prepare for the fact that they will try to set fire to Central Asia before the end of the year.

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