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OPEC closes its analysis of the year without changes in its forecasts for 2023

Vienna, 13 Dec. OPEC issued its latest monthly report on the oil market for 2022 on Tuesday in Vienna and maintains all its estimates, both for production and demand for crude oil, unchanged for 2023, when it forecasts global economic growth of 2.5%. .

Analysts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) estimate that world demand for crude oil will grow by 2.2 million barrels per day (mbd) next year, up to 101.8 mbd, an unchanged level compared to calculated in the previous report.

Most of this growth (1.9 mbd) will come from emerging countries.

“This forecast is subject to many uncertainties, including global economic developments, COVID-19 containment measures, mainly in China, and current geopolitical tensions,” referring to the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine.

The outlook for global economic growth is under downward pressure due to high inflation, rising interest rates in the main economies, high levels of sovereign debt in many regions and some problems in supply chains, says OPEC .

In addition, geopolitical risks and the pace of the coronavirus pandemic during the northern hemisphere winter remain uncertain, OPEC highlights.

On the other hand, the analysts of the energy group, made up of 13 countries, maintain their forecast of demand for their own crude oil for 2023 unchanged, with 29.2 mbd, 2% more than this year.

All this despite the 2 mbd cut in production, approved last October by OPEC and its partners, led by Russia, and extended in December to 2023.

In this sense, OPEC confirms that its joint production last November was 28.8 mbd, that is, 744,000 barrels per day less than the previous month, always according to independent sources.

On the other hand, the average price of the so-called “OPEC basket”, made up of one crude oil for each member country, stood at 89.73 dollars per barrel in November, 4.2% less than the previous month.

The price of OPEC crude has been falling for several weeks, despite the cut in production, with a price of $74.92 per barrel this Monday, 11% less than on December 1. EFE

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