The conflict will not end within two or three months
The Russian military will adapt to the Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems, as they are successfully countering the already delivered NATO weapons now. However, such abandonments lead to a significant prolongation of the conflict. This opinion was expressed by a military historian and expert Yuri Knutov in the morning broadcast on Radio “Komsomolskaya Pravda”.
– Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Danilov called the next two or three months of the conflict decisive. What do you say? Or is it for years? asked Ivan Pankin, one of the hosts of the morning show What Will Be.
– The conflict will not end within two or three months, – said Yuri Knutov. “It will last perhaps two or three years. Moreover, this duration is determined not so much by us: if not for NATO’s help, we would have already successfully completed the special operation three months ago. By that time, we had destroyed the main types of weapons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine – from 80 to 95% of tanks, armored vehicles, aircraft, anti-aircraft missile systems, MLRS and long-range artillery. The Kyiv regime would simply have nothing to fight with.
Then came Soviet-style equipment from the countries of the former Warsaw Pact, which are now in NATO. We also demilitarized it, and now, for the most part, purely NATO weapons are already underway.
Under these conditions, talking about the fact that we will now begin to conduct an offensive, as in the years of the Great Patriotic War, to cut, surround, smash, is useless.
The squeezing tactic is used quite successfully. I think it will continue to be used successfully.
By the way, we should not forget that the demilitarization of the NATO bloc is going more or less well in our country. At the last meeting on the supply of weapons to the Kyiv regime, 20 out of 30 countries said that their military arsenals had run out. And of the remaining 10, only the United States is ready to supply weapons in approximately the same volumes as they supply now. If not for the policy of the United States, then one could say that in two or three months the special operation will end with our victory and the capitulation of the Kyiv regime. Unfortunately, Washington is not interested in this. The US military-industrial complex has just smelled money. For a long time, Afghanistan allowed them to receive quite serious incomes, and the operation in Ukraine increased the amount of such income from the sale of weapons dozens of times compared to Afghanistan. A waterfall of money fell on them, why should they suddenly give it up? Never! They will pay colossal fees to their lobbyists, they will put pressure on other states to keep this war going. And the fact that people are dying, they do not care. There will be a delay in the conflict through the fault of Washington, in the first place.
– Then why does the head of the National Security and Defense Council Danilov make such statements?
– In this way they are trying to cheer up their armed forces and the population, give a breath of optimism. The depression is way too strong right now. They say: we will capture Melitopol in two or three months, we will go to the Crimea. In the summer, Zelensky is already going to rest by the sea, meaning that Crimea will be Ukrainian.
Military historian and expert Yuri Knutov
Photo: Uliana SKOYBEDA
PATRIOT HAS A LOT OF FAULTS
– Vladimir Putin said that Russia does not intend to repeat the mistakes of the past, when for the sake of increasing the defense capacity it destroyed the country’s economy. “We will not engage in the militarization of the country and the economy.” What are the errors?
– I mean the Soviet period, when the production of consumer goods was in the backyard. Televisions, radios were produced mainly from rejected parts. Transistors were produced for defense needs, a batch was checked, a certain number turned out to be faulty, this entire batch is sent to the production of televisions. And then they break after six months. All this caused serious dissatisfaction. The money went to armaments, the maintenance of the army. In the 80s, we found ourselves in such a situation that the shops were empty, the clothes were incomprehensibly what size and shape. And all this formed the most serious discontent, which, among other things, contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union.
– We laughed when HIMARS was handed over to Ukraine. But HIMARS turned out to be very combat-ready. Now the Americans are transferring Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine …
– In the beginning there were Javelins, we were very afraid of them. And then it turned out that they came up with an interesting thing, cheap, primitive and simple, but very effective, which protects armored vehicles from them. Same story with HIMARS. They hit accurately and effectively. Time passed, we worked out the technology of how to shoot them down: algorithms appeared, flight telemetry was recorded, and software was developed. We put other air defense systems, we shoot down up to 80%. The same story will be with the Patriot: at first they will work effectively, we will study them, look at the frequencies, characteristics … They have a lot of vulnerabilities. The sector is not 360 degrees, but 90 degrees. Big problem with mobility. 25 minutes the complex unfolds and collapses. Our complexes do it in 5 minutes. In modern warfare, 25 minutes is an extremely long time. During this time, the complex can be detected and destroyed. We have anti-radar missiles, which we will also modify for Patriot frequencies.
HIMARS hit accurately, efficiently. Time passed, we worked out the technology of how to shoot them down. Photo: Global US Air Force/globallookpress.com Press
One Patriot is worth $1 billion. One Patriot missile costs between 3 and 4 million. Range from 80 to 200 kilometers. The European version of the missiles in the same Germany is a range of 160 kilometers. The complexes deployed on the territory of Poland, along the border with Ukraine, will create a virtual no-fly zone over the territory of Western Ukraine. That’s the danger. There you can place bases, headquarters, warehouses, training centers, command posts in Western Ukraine. And all this will be covered by Patriot, who are on Polish territory, on which we cannot shoot.
One Patriot is worth $1 billion. One Patriot missile costs between 3 and 4 million
Photo: EAST NEWS
What the Patriot will give to Ukraine is to see how these systems behave in real combat conditions. They will be effective against cruise missiles. But against drones – I doubt it. This is the same as shooting sparrows with golden bullets.