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Foreign cars in showrooms left for a month. And then what

Despite the fact that almost all Russian car dealers have set up deliveries of new cars through parallel imports, their volume is not enough to cover the needs of the market

Despite the fact that almost all Russian car dealers have set up deliveries of new cars through parallel imports, their volume is not enough to cover the needs of the market

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URGENT TO STORE

The automotive world is sounding the alarm – according to the Association of Russian Automobile Dealers, new foreign cars are left in warehouses for no more than a month.

“We are talking about cars of top European, American, Japanese and South Korean brands,” the vice president of the National Automobile Union specified to kp.ru Jan Heitzer. – Manufacturers of 45 automobile brands announced their withdrawal from Russia or suspension of production, and this loss will be difficult to make up.

However, according to the expert, the “automobile counters” will not be empty – Russian and Chinese cars, as well as products of parallel imports, will take the place of those who left.

– But all this does not compensate for the loss of the automotive industry, – said the interlocutor. – We see that sales volumes are falling, many dealers stop their activities. But if in quantitative terms there is at least something – the products of the Chinese or domestic auto industry, then in qualitative terms – the losses are irreplaceable. If earlier, when coming to a car dealership, a buyer could choose a car for every taste and for any task, now there is no such variety. Car dealerships, in order not to close, raise prices to unthinkable heights – but our consumer is not yet used to the fact that an economy class car cheaper than 2 million rubles is no longer found.

The fact that the auto industry is going through hard times was confirmed by the dealers themselves.

– The Avtodom company has more than 50 Audi cars, BMW, Mini, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche cars are available, Andrey Olkhovsky, General Director of Avtodom, told kp.ru. – This will be enough until the end of the year, and the rest will depend on demand and the general situation in the automotive market.

First of all, budget foreign cars disappeared from car dealerships.

“So if someone needs a conditional Skoda Octavia, then you need to run to a car dealership as soon as possible, because it will not be there soon,” the auto expert, partner of the Avtostat analytical agency, explained the situation. Igor Morzharetto. – There have been no receipts for most stamps since March, so everything is going as expected: stocks have run out. First of all, this applies to inexpensive brands KIA, Hyundai, Wolksvagen, Skoda…

WILL PARALLEL IMPORTS SAVE?

We relied on parallel import, why doesn’t it save?

– Parallel import works, but it’s about 5,000 cars a month, says Morzharetto. – This is very little – at least 30,000 new cars are sold in Russia per month.

That is, it turns out that parallel imports cover no more than 15 percent of the need.

“Despite the fact that almost all Russian car dealers have set up deliveries of new cars through parallel imports, their volume is not enough to cover the needs of the market,” Denis Migal, CEO of the Fresh Auto automotive marketplace, confirmed to kp.ru. – Basically, piece expensive models are imported, which were not previously supplied to Russia. And in order to import large quantities of mass foreign cars, it is necessary to eliminate the difficulties with logistics and customs clearance, otherwise their delivery will not be profitable for both the dealer and the end buyer.

Still, the effect of parallel imports is noticeable.

– Deliveries of premium and luxury segment cars and spare parts have been arranged, – says Olkhovsky. – As part of the deliveries, both new and low-mileage cars are imported. As part of parallel imports, the most popular models will be those that are not supplied through official channels. Now, thanks to such deliveries, dealers have new cars from Jaguar, Land Rover, Porsche, BMW and others. The range of electric vehicles, which are supplied as part of parallel imports, has also expanded on the Russian market.

But he does not have high expectations from the prospects of this direction.

– Next year, parallel imports will not take more than 10% of total car sales, – says Olkhovsky. – I think it will not have a significant impact on the overall level of the market.

To expand the parallel flow, it is necessary to change the legislation, experts say,

“We have protective duties that were taken when it was necessary to protect the domestic auto industry from the pressure of inexpensive and high-quality imports,” Heitzeer explained. – But now the situation has changed, but the duties remain. Under such conditions, it is profitable to engage in parallel imports only for individuals – but they cannot provide large volumes of supplies. It is necessary to make it profitable for legal entities as well – then parallel imports will make a more significant contribution to the total sales volumes.

WE SKIP, BUT WE GO

And yet there is hope. First of all, it is associated with the domestic auto industry.

“AvtoVAZ has announced that it will produce more than 400,000 vehicles next year,” Morzharetto said. – This is a lot when compared with the result of this year – it is expected that 180 thousand cars of this brand will be sold. Moskvich announced the release of 50 thousand cars. I hope for a small, but an increase in parallel imports. Deliveries from China will continue, and I expect that these will be not only quite expensive crossovers that are now being delivered to us from there, but also more budget cars – within 1-2 million rubles.

Newcomers – Iranian cars – may come to the Russian market next year.

– There are two large and several smaller companies that are interested in entering the Russian market, – said Morzharetto. – But in terms of their technological level and quality, they are not higher than our VAZ. Iranian models are assembled, as a rule, on the platform of French cars of previous generations, and very previous ones. But there are original developments on the bodies, that is, they look good outwardly. In general, there are no obvious freaks, but there are no breakthroughs either.

Iranian companies Iran Khordo and SAIPA have expressed their desire to enter the Russian market. The latter introduced the Shahin C-class sedan for this purpose.

However, according to the expert, Iranian cars will be bought only if they are no more expensive than VAZ ones. And barrage duties and shipping costs make this problematic. So our Lada will stand for 1.5 million and the same, but Iranian for 2-2.5 million – and who will buy it? Therefore, if we want to not only import Iranian cars, but also sell them, then we need to organize their SKD assembly here.

In general, according to the expert, if this year it is expected that 650,000 new cars will be sold by the end of the year, next year sales will amount to 750,000 new cars, both foreign and domestic.

LIFE-SAVING WAND

That’s what will definitely become a lifesaver for Russian motorists – it’s used cars. Sales are growing every month. So November did not disappoint – it turned out that 5% of such cars were sold more than in the previous month. Moreover, according to the Avtostat agency, in November 2022, our people bought more than 460 thousand used cars – this is the maximum figure this year.

Moreover, used foreign cars will not be those that ran on our roads, but imported ones.

“Usually, the used car market is fueled by sales of previously purchased cars in the same country,” says Morzharetto. – We usually sold cars three years after buying a new one. But now people do not want to part with them – they will ride for 4 and 5 years and more. Because of this, a shortage of used cars is created on the market – therefore, even more cars are brought to us and will be brought from abroad. From Europe, the path is practically closed – used cars are delivered from Japan (so we will have more and more right-hand drive cars) and from China.

The Celestial Empire has huge potential in this regard. If among new cars the share of China is 30% of the Russian market, then among used ones, as Surana Radnaeva, the general director of the Russian-Chinese company Sino-Rus, Surana Radnaeva, told kp.ru, only 1%.

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