The shares of Argentina traded higher again this Thursday, in an operation that was pending the dissemination of the inflation data for 2022and that I take advantage of the momentum caused by the retraction of the country risk and the shift to the market for greater liquidity.
What happens in Brazil and the inflation data in the US and Argentina will set the pace for the market this week
In January the upward rhythm for Argentine assets is sustained. Stockbrokers focus on the political instability in Brazil and the relevant price reports in Argentina and the US
Although the bullish expectation for Argentine shares was firm, after gains of 142% in pesos and 43% in dollars for the Merval in 2022, the speed and force of the price jump at the beginning of 2023 was not foreseen in the projections of the analysts.
The leading S&P Merval index of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange rose 4.3%, above 234,153 points at closing, to mark its new all-time high in pesos.
Financial week: Argentine shares confirmed their overwhelming pace at the beginning of 2023
The S&P Merval rose 5.8% for the week to a nominal record 213,794 points. ADRs climbed as much as 17% on Wall Street and dollar bonds gained 4%. The free dollar rose eight pesos to $354 and the BCRA bought USD 62 million in the market
Private papers sustained a broad bullish rally, at the rate of Argentine ADRs on Wall Street, with gains led by Mercado Libre (+9.3%), Banco Supervielle (+6.3%), Corporación América (+5.2 %) and YPF (+4.9%).
Financial stocks are the winners so far in January: Banco Supervielle rises 32.4% in dollars; Galicia Group, 30%; Banco Macro, 26.4%, and Banco Francés, 19 percent.
The free dollar hit a record at $362 and the MEP jumped 4.5% to $343, due to the search for coverage against inflation and excess liquidity
“This rise is not euphoria, it is ‘road to glory’. Allow me to point it out as such: it is the stock market that is rising the most today among all those in the world. It is shot and catapulted,” he said. Jorge Fediotechnical analyst at Clave Bursátil and one of the most emphatic experts in anticipating this trend.
Financial day: the free dollar rose to $357 and is already 10% more expensive than the one traded on the Stock Market
The altcoin gained two pesos on the day and posted an increase of 11 pesos, or 3.2%, in January. With official intervention, the MEP fell to 325.87 pesos. The bonds rose again and the country risk fell to approach 2,000 points
“We warn that any rise is nourished by impulses and setbacks. Impulses that are more vehement and retracements that are not so tremendous, but that must be measured with the Fibonacci retracement scale and, when the market is catapulted and shoots tremendous rises, it is very risky to get on the train in motion. Patience, we have to wait for the adjustments, which are a substantial part of the rise and allow us tickets”, added Jorge Fedio.
The Merval in dollars accumulates “a gain of 16% so far this year. In this way, the ‘Mervaleta’ marks a new post-PASO 2019 record and exceeds 100% growth for the first time since the 2022 lows observed in July”, the analysts from Portfolio Personal Inversiones acknowledged.
“Bonds and shares are motivated by their own reasons, investors already discount that inflation is very high and that the Government is fighting to lower it. The country risk loses ground and the ADRs in New York have an impact on the stock market record, ”he explained to Reuters the analyst Marcelo Rojas.
Global markets reflected a fall in the dollar after the spread of a decline in US consumer prices in December for the first time in more than two years, strengthening the possibility that the Federal Reserve will reduce its pace further. rate hike.
This data also endorsed Argentine assets, in line with what was evidenced in emerging economies, despite a certain selectivity over sovereign debt papers typical of the characteristics of each amortization.
Dollar bonds gained 1.3% on average, according to the evolution of Global titles with foreign law on Wall Street. JP Morgan’s country risk subtracted 12 integers for Argentina, at 1,994 basis points at 6:15 p.m.
The indicator reached 1,991 points, the lowest level since the beginning of last June and far from the recent maximum of almost 3,000 points reached at the end of July. This behavior is a great incentive for Argentine financial businesses, the operators told Reuters.
The free dollar traded in the reduced parallel market ended this Thursday at $361 for sale, with a daily gain of two pesos. The informal ticket was traded at $362 when averaging a nominal record for the session. Meanwhile, the exchange gap with the wholesale dollar, which rose 22 cents to $180.87, reached 99.5 percent.
They also escalated the implicit exchange parities in stock assets. The MEP dollar jumped 15 pesos or 4.5% on the day, to a record of $342.38, catapulted by hedging of currency positions against a notorious excess of pesos after the recent payment of interest linked to sovereign debt and the December soybean dollar settlements. It was almost matched with the “cash with liquidation”, used to send foreign currency abroad, which closed at 343.57 pesos.
As is common in the month of January, where exports are reduced in the foreign exchange market due to seasonal reasons, the amount traded in the spot segment was around USD 187.5 million, less than half of the USD 500 million traded daily in the last week of December.
The BCRA ended its foreign exchange participation with a neutral balancewhile it maintains a net purchase result of USD 80 million so far this month, little if compared to the almost USD 2,000 million net incorporated in December, even with the soybean dollar 2 scheme in force.
The Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) made sharp cuts to its 2022/23 soybean and corn harvest estimates, now 37 million and close to 45 million tons respectively, due to the impact of the worst drought in 60 years to hit the key food exporter.
This reality will have a strong economic impact and foreign currency income, according to the Grain Exchange of Buenos Aires, with a retraction equivalent to 1.8% of GDP in 2023, which would lead the country to lose up to USD 11,628 million in exports of grain.