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Demand for housing in 2022 will fall by 20%: will prices fall

A photo: Ivan MAKEEV

In 2022, we can expect a drop in housing demand by 20% compared to 2021. This was stated Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin.

– 2021 was an unprecedented year in terms of demand… more than the market average. Now demand for this year will be 10-20 percent lower than last year, but will correspond to normal market realities, he said. – If demand falls, we will look for new measures: either to extend the mortgage (preferential for new buildings – Ed.), or some other. Demand needs to be supported, it is an opportunity for people to improve their living conditions.

“Demand has been falling for four months now, it’s hard not to notice this fact,” KP.RU commented on the situation. Vice-President of the Russian Guild of Realtors Konstantin Aprelev.

According to the expert, in April-May in some regions, demand fell by 4-5 times. In June-July, the situation was slightly better, because mortgage rates began to decline. But all the same, in general, demand was 2-3 times lower than last year.

– Therefore, a fall of 20% at the end of the year is a very accurate estimate. In my opinion, demand will fall by no less than 30-40% by the end of the year. And that’s because the first three months there was growth. Especially in March, when many rushed to buy something “on the old terms”, on mortgages agreed before the crazy growth of the key rate and interest rates on loans. This smoothes the picture as a whole for the year, – Aprelev believes. – The main reason for the lack of buyers is that house prices for 2020-21 rose by 30-40%. This limits effective demand even at low mortgage rates. Yes, the preferential mortgage rate for new buildings has already been reduced to 7%. And for the secondary, it is now really in the region of 9.5-10%. But it is still higher than a year ago. And the incomes of the population are not growing, there are no more jobs with incomes suitable for mortgages. Rather, on the contrary, some jobs for highly paid specialists are closed.

What will be with prices? There is no way without their reduction now, Konstantin Aprelev predicts. Other options are possible only if mortgage rates fall to 6-7% (and not under preferential programs, but in general). But the decline may be veiled.

– If there are no special options on the secondary, then the developers have proposed such a scenario for new buildings, – says the expert. – Do not reduce prices, but reduce the mortgage rate, subsidizing it. Roughly speaking, a preferential mortgage loan comes at 7%, and with a subsidy from the developer – at 3%. I think it will be a different situation. Someone will lower prices, but not subsidize the rate. Someone to subsidize the rate, but keep prices to the last.

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