CR called “Xi’s five strikes” for Pelosi in Taiwan: but China does not want to harm itself

Western experts are critical of the visit Nancy Pelosipredicting negative consequences for Taiwan in the near future.

According to the agency Bloomberg, there are several possible scenarios for the development of events after the landing of Pelosi at the airport in Taipei. In fact, the most obviously unpleasant scenario would be war, which, among other things, would also become very costly.

This forecast was given by the director of analysis of China and North Asia Andrew Gilholm at Control Risks (a global risk and strategic consulting firm specializing in political, security and integrity risks).

Options for the development of events are really not so hot. In social media they are already called “Five strikes of C”:

  • There is a version that Taiwan is expecting major invasions of combat aircraft from both China and the United States. If the Americans decide to invade, China will have to respond militarily, a senior analyst at Crisis Group explained.
  • There will also be an increase in the number of military aircraft in the skies over the island. Conducting military flights over Taiwan, by and large, is a compulsion to make a decision “to shoot down an object or not.”
  • China has also started another missile test. The PLA had previously launched “carrier killer” ballistic missiles into the South China Sea in 2020, which was seen as a response to US naval exercises.
  • It will not do without economic measures. Beijing is quite capable of completely destroying the entire Taiwanese economy by imposing sanctions on exporters and restricting bilateral trade.
  • There are options to bring down shipping in the Taiwan Strait, a key route for world trade. But the Chinese are not Europeans and so far have no desire to harm themselves.

However, Chinese leaders have already warned the US that the Biden administration will face a “major” setback in relations with China because of Pelosi’s visit. Recall of Chinese ambassador to the United States is quite possible Qin Gangwho took over last year.

Ceteris paribus, Beijing had the opportunity to use other military options besides organizing an invasion through the 130-kilometer Taiwan Strait.

Spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China Hua Chunying said that a visit by an American politician to the island would have catastrophic consequences for the United States. Despite the press’ sarcasm about Beijing, observers write that the problem here is not limited to Taiwan.

On this occasion, the former Minister of Defense of France Alain Richard spoke in in the spirit that China can go beyond the usual violations of the border by its warplanes.

Especially to be wary of the Chinese fleet with its special transport ships for large-scale amphibious assault. At the same time, it is worth remembering that quite recently China did not have such courts. That is, the use of military force, if Taiwan continues to provoke him with its “independence”, China will definitely not be embarrassed.

The problem is that a Chinese military response would drag the US into proxy conflicts with a nuclear Russia and a nuclear China at the same time, lamented the NYT. And there is very little hope for allies – they already have enough problems with Russia in the context of Ukraine, where the United States also does not shine with the ability to influence the situation.

For example, Joe Biden and his national security adviser Jake Sullivan explicitly asked Beijing not to enter into the Ukrainian conflict and not to provide military assistance to Russia, especially now that Putin’s arsenal has been depleted after five months of hard fighting. And now it all went down the drain because of “a completely adventurous undertaking by Nancy Pelosi.”

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