Pelosi’s flight to Taiwan will go down in history as the craziest political performance of 2022. While the whole world was watching the plane of the Speaker of the US House of Representatives flying to the island, experts were trying to understand what such sudden movements under China’s nose were fraught with.
As it turned out, Beijing was not going to respond with anything radical right away. Analysts debate whether a full-fledged friendly alliance between Beijing and Moscow is possible after such a twisted insult from the US.
Many believe that the Celestial Empire may finally stop “playing on two fronts.”
Director of the Institute for Applied Political Studies Grigory Dobromelov spoke in the spirit that the flight of Pelosi, in fact, will not change anything: Russia and China can bring their positions closer, but nothing more. All the excitement around this act was inflated by the media. The Chinese authorities have never said at all that they intend to shoot down a plane with an elderly politician, an expert noted for Novye Izvestia.
Moreover, experts understand that before the Congress of the Communist Party of China in October, no active military actions against Taiwan are possible. Whipping up hysterics in the press did nothing.
Most likely, China will continue to dodge secondary sanctions when building foreign economic relations with Russia. The Chinese are pragmatic and diplomatic, but sooner or later they will respond to Washington.
At the same time, sinologists note in social media that in Chinese culture and philosophy there is a powerful institution of reputation. If someone is dishonored, The Chinese will never forgive this.
In this case, the Americans drove China beyond the red line with extreme pathos. Beijing diligently tried to play on two fronts, meticulously fulfilling US sanctions, so what did this lead to?
As in the Huawei case, the Americans destroyed half of the business and forced the Chinese to implement their own solutions. Maybe now the alliance between Russia and China will strengthen, which will be very good for Russia.
HSE Professor, investment banker Evgeny Kogan recalled that Taiwan is primarily semiconductors. According to analysts from the Semiconductor Industry Association, TSMC accounts for about 90% of the production of the world’s most complex semiconductor components and microchips.
If in the end the PRC gains control over the Taiwan Strait, it will block the main route for ships coming from China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to the west. This year, almost half of the world’s container fleet and 88% of the world’s largest ships in terms of tonnage passed through this waterway.
In general, one can expect an asymmetrical response from the PRC, since it has a lot of opportunities.
“The Chinese may change their position regarding military assistance to the Russians in the conflict in Ukraine,” they discuss in social networks.
In fact, even the representative of the White House John Kirby also believes that China will respond to Nancy Pelosi’s trip in the “long term.”
Without the reaction of the offended and humiliated Celestial Empire, this “visit of the century” will definitely not remain, experts conclude.