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Central Bank forecast for the end of the year: “Wages will rise, prices will rise too, and the ruble will begin to weaken”

Head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina.

Head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina.

A photo: Vladimir VELENGURIN

This Friday there was a regular meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank. State bankers decided what to do with the key rate. In the end, they agreed that it was worth it. leave it at the same level – 7.5% per annum. Under the current conditions, this was recognized as the most balanced solution. Here is what the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, said in her statement immediately after the meeting. KP.RU highlighted the main ideas.

Partial mobilization will lead to an increase in wages and … prices

– Continues downward correction in consumer goods prices, which have risen in price in the spring: building materials, furniture, electronics, food items. However, the rise in prices in general is still gradually increasing in comparison with the very low rates of May, June and July, – said Elvira Nabiullina.

Naturally, the main factor that influenced the trend change in the last month is partial mobilization. It again increased the uncertainty in the economy. Someone forced to withdraw money from the bank, and someone – to leave.

– In the coming months, due to a decrease in consumer demand, its effects will be disinflationary. But then a pro-inflationary effect may appear through changes in the structure of the labor market, a shortage of personnel in certain specialties, – the head of the Central Bank explained.

According to her, it is still difficult to assess all the economic consequences of a shift in the structure of employment. They will appear gradually. One thing is clear. There was a shortage of good specialists in the labor market anyway. Perhaps now it will intensify even more. The good news is that salaries are likely to rise for such people. The bad news is that wage increases are unlikely to affect everyone. But the prices will go up for everyone.

Exports will hit transport bottlenecks

In various sectors of the economy, the trends are also ambiguous. On the one hand, there is positive news. Firstly, parallel imports have started working almost to their fullest. Secondly, companies within the country are also increasing production volumes.

– After the spring suspension of activities, restoration began in the domestic auto industry. The production of medicines and certain types of agricultural machinery is growing at a double-digit pace. Big changes are taking place in the transport sector, – explained the head of the Central Bank.

And here is the main difficulty. For example, international cargo flows have largely shifted to the ports of the Far East, the share of which has increased from 40% to 70%. However, the capacity of the rail lines leading to these ports is limited.

– Their workload may hinder export deliveries on the one hand and slow down the growth of imports from Asian markets on the other. There are examples of coal, oil refining and petrochemical companies for which the redirection of supplies to the East remains a serious logistical problem, Nabiullina said.

According to her, this negatively affects the overall performance. Difficulties with marketing are forcing some companies to reduce production. Working in a warehouse in the current conditions is expensive.

The ruble may weaken due to a recession in the global economy

The situation in the global economy is deteriorating. This applies primarily to developed countries – the United States, Japan and the European Union.

– Many countries have been pursuing a soft monetary policy for a long time, creating a canopy of cheap money in the economy. And this policy has led to inevitable imbalances in this case, increasing the risks of financial stability in global markets. In response to high inflation, many countries sharply raise rates, which also has negative consequences in the form of a slowdown in global economic growth and an increase in the cost of servicing debt, the head of the Central Bank explained.

In her opinion, further intensification of crisis processes in the world will lead to a reduction in Russian exports. In such conditions, the ruble is likely to weaken. After all, now its rate is determined precisely by the balance between exports and imports. True, there are other forecasts here – Western economists. For example, the US bank JPMorgan, on the contrary, believes that oil could rise to an astronomical $380 per barrel. Then we will definitely not see a weak ruble. But it is unlikely that any of the Russians will be very upset by this.

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