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Brain drain abroad and saving on entertainment: how partial mobilization will affect our wallets

The Russian stock market reacted immediately to the president's address to the Russians, in which he announced a partial mobilization.

The Russian stock market reacted immediately to the president’s address to the Russians, in which he announced a partial mobilization.

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To the President’s address to the Russians, in which he announced partial mobilization, the Russian stock market reacted immediately. So, at the opening of trading, the Moscow Exchange index fell by 9.45%, almost to the level of 2000 points. The RTS index fell by more than 11% to 1025 points. The dollar exchange rate against the ruble at the opening of the main session grew by 2.39%, to 62.05 rubles, the euro rose to 61.42 rubles. (+1.35%).

Recall that on the eve of the leading Russian stock indices fell by more than 8% after the announcement of a referendum on joining Russia in the LPR, DPR, as well as in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions. The decline was the most powerful since February 24, when the indices lost more than 30% against the background of the announcement of a special military operation in Ukraine.

KP.RU asked the experts how they assess the current fall and what we should expect next.

“The emotional effect will pass”

– The presidential decree on partial mobilization caused an emotional fall on the Moscow Exchange. Those figures that we see are associated solely with the emotions of investors. Now they are drawing the worst scenarios that can be. But, as practice shows, the emotional effect passes, and I think that in the very near future we will see the recovery of indices to previous positions, – the anti-crisis manager, economist told KP.RU Pavel Kobiak.

– The current falls in the stock markets are connected not so much with mobilization, but with the next wave of sanctions pressure on Russia. A gradual conscription of 300,000 people is unlikely to shake things up, – a financial and stock analyst said in a conversation with KP.RU Stepan Demura.

At the same time, according to the expert, a serious fall in the stock market may begin in just a month and a half.

– It will be associated with a sharply deteriorating situation in the global economy, which is falling into a powerful depression – especially the European Union, and the States are not far behind. In the near future, the inflow of export earnings will begin to decline sharply, and with such a ruble exchange rate, the profitability of our companies – both exporters and those operating in the domestic market – will sharply decline. Mass non-payments and bankruptcies will begin. That’s when it all starts to reach investors, then a slight panic will begin in our market, Stepan Demura believes.

The budget deficit could rise

These days, the government is making final adjustments to the budget for the next year and the next three years. According to experts, the budget deficit may turn out to be larger than the government initially assumed.

– Budget deficit of 3 trillion. rubles annually, which the government announced, is the deficit of the peacetime budget. Such a deficit suggests that there will be shortfalls in revenues and there will be some additional defense spending. But now it is difficult to say exactly what they will be. Real life may differ from forecasts, and then the budget will be adjusted, – said KP.RU Denis Raksha.

One of the problems of our economy is the shortage of workers. Can she escalate?

– We have an economically active population of 72 million people, which is exactly half of the country’s inhabitants. It is clear that those who belong to the economically active population will be subject to mobilization. This means that the jobs that these people occupied before will be vacated. But gradually their places will be taken by those who were not previously part of the economically active population (for example, pensioners). As a result of this substitution, the economy, up to a certain point, does not feel a shortage of workers. Everything will depend on how many people will be called up for military service and for how long, – explains Denis Raksha.

One more question: what can globally change in our economy in the context of the NWO?

– The reality of wartime presupposes a certain degree of mobilization of the economy. Under such conditions, the economy shrinks and its structure inevitably changes: the country needs more tanks and fewer services. If the economy mobilizes, then something that can be dispensed with dies off. People will not refuse food, but you may have to give up a beach holiday in Sochi and various entertainments. Miracles do not happen, and the incomes of the population in the event of mobilization of the economy will fall. And then people will not spend money on something they can do without, – explains Denis Raksha.

– The standard of living of Russians will depend on the subsequent actions of our government. So far, partial mobilization has no effect on entrepreneurs who provide standard services – bakeries, shops, hairdressers. At the same time, now we will face a new outflow of brains abroad in part of the business and scientific community. And here we can see some negative consequences. But that from tomorrow a serious economic downturn will begin in our country, and everything will be bad – you can’t say that, Pavel Kobyak believes.

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