A year before the disaster: Europe learned its verdict

Next winter, Europe will have to find somewhere 30 billion cubic meters of gas, which it does not yet know where to get

Next winter, Europe will have to find somewhere 30 billion cubic meters of gas, which it does not yet know where to get

A photo: REUTERS

First, the backstory. At the Verona Eurasian Forum in late October, Leonid Mikhelson, head of Russia’s second-largest gas company Novatek, warned: “This winter could be the easiest of the next three for Europe, as it has managed to fill storage by this season, but 2023 will be much more difficult.” . And this prediction surprised many people. Approximately, as Putin in 2007 Europeans at a security conference in Munich with his speech.

Well, now the story itself. Just the other day, former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson repeated Michelson’s forecast almost word for word. For all those who depend on Russian gas supplies, this winter will be very difficult, but thanks to the amazing organizational efforts to fill the storage facilities with gas, we will overcome it, Boris wrote in an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal. – A bigger problem is next winter of 2023-24 when these stocks will shrink and be harder to replenish. The new LNG terminals will not be operational yet. Some European countries are rushing to build more offshore wind power generation capabilities, but they won’t be ready yet either. And we definitely won’t have any more civilian nuclear reactors.

And this Monday, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, also gave her voice.

– The upcoming winter (2023-2024 – ed.) will be even more difficult, and Europe needs to intensify its efforts in several areas. You have outlined the risks. It is possible that Russia will cut the rest of pipeline gas supplies. China can remove the COVID-19 restriction and thus return to pre-pandemic global energy demand, a former gynecologist assistant explained the situation at a press conference in the past. – And of course, this year we have benefited from an unusually warm winter. Things might be different next year. From your data, I know that, despite the measures we have taken, next year we may face a shortage of up to 30 billion cubic meters of gas.

Separately, of course, it gives pleasure that Ursula has already lived through the coming winter. And her very bold statement about it on December 12th. It is clear that it is based on the filling of European gas storage facilities by 93%. But they forgot to tell madam that these vaults are like a supportive and stabilizing therapy after a surgical operation. If gas is not delivered to Europe through gas pipelines, then there will hardly be enough storage until the end of the heating season if they are spent only on households, and then in austerity mode. And you can forget about the industry in this case. By the way, because of the price, households in Europe are already saving with might and main on heating.

But there is an even more remarkable passage in Ursula’s speech. This is an acknowledgment that next winter Europe will have to find somewhere 30 billion cubic meters of gas, which it does not yet know where to get it from. And what does the head of the European Commission do in these conditions?

She is trying to set a new price ceiling. This time on gas. Oil has already been introduced. This did not affect Russia, but the Bosphorus formed a traffic jam from oil tankers. Only now, not Russian, but Kazakh. Turkey began to zealously comply with the established procedure and demand contracts for full insurance coverage, as decided in the EU and the G7 countries. In Ankara, by their example, they proved that there is nothing more terrible and difficult in the army than life according to the charter.

– I hope that we will be able to agree on the marginal gas prices in the coming days, – said Ursula all at the same press conference. – EU countries should transfer powers to Brussels for joint gas purchases as soon as possible

This is some kind of mysterious trick in a European way. Watch your hands. With our left hand, we set a price ceiling for Russian oil, and it goes to third countries, from where it is sold (or processed into oil products), but with an intermediary mark-up. Oil, of course, “found a hole” and leaked through it, but “during the journey, the dog was able to grow up.” In price.


And now we look at the right hand, with which we set the “price ceiling” for gas, knowing full well that there is a huge shortage of gas. 30 billion cubic meters is serious. At the same time, gas, except for gas pipelines, can be transported only after the industrial process in liquefied form on specially equipped tankers. And such tankers are also in short supply. And everyone knows very well that Russia does not sell its resources to countries where decisions are made on the introduction of “price ceilings.” That is, after such a decision is made, with a shortage of 30 billion cubic meters, we will either refuse Russian gas, or we will have to pay many times more for it. By the way, experts have already estimated how much it will cost to compensate for the shortfall in Russian gas volumes.

– You will have to pay for them (the missing cubic meters – ed. note), they will not be free. They will cost 100 billion euros in one year. We have to pay 100 billion euros to implement them, – Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said at a press conference today.

The EU has practically achieved the “Bezneft” regime. Next in line is Bezgaz. But if with oil, difficulties arise only with the price, the product itself is available, then with the “No gas” regime, everything can be much more complicated precisely in terms of the availability of the product. But this does not stop either Ursula or the other leaders of the current Euroreich. Europeans must endure the hardships of life until victory over Moscow and obediently turn out their pockets for the victory of the thoroughly corrupt and Nazi Ukrainian “democracy”. Almost like Hitler.

And this gas will be distributed among the EU countries, if it can still be purchased, from Brussels. It remains to be decided whether it is fraternal or fair. Or to whom the tops, and to whom – the roots.

The European skill of shooting oneself in the legs has reached perfection.

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