Analysts from the Danish Saxo Bank shared quite bold forecasts for the coming year.
A photo: Shutterstock
There is such a bank in Denmark – Saxo Bank. He is mainly engaged in stock exchange operations. Attracts clients from all over the world. Like, place money with us and trade on any exchanges. Over a decade ago, someone smart in marketing decided to give the bank a good PR. After all, in order for you to be known all over the world, then the brand needs to be shaken globally.
The word “hype” didn’t exist back then. But this is exactly what the witty Danes tried to do. In the fall, they gathered a “brainstorm” inside the bank, gave free rein to their fantasies, perhaps even drank and ate – the output was 10 predictions for the next year. Everything is on the verge of fantasy. And in order to spin the story, they began to hold press breakfasts with journalists in the most promising countries for business, including Russia. And on them to try to give logical explanations for their incredible predictions.
The format is gone. After all, this is how the current consumer of information works. The more fantastic the script, the more publications, likes and reposts it has. The calculation of the Danes was a win-win. Firstly, few people will remember what they predicted there a year ago, whether it came true or not. Moreover, the forecast is mostly humorous. Secondly, if something really comes true, it will be possible to blow it out loud. Like, everyone thought that this does not happen, but we predicted. So there were “shocking” forecasts.
That’s what predict Saxo Bank analysts for the coming year. It is worth noting that the predictions have become more serious. Although it was not without obvious nonsense.
1. World corporations will create a global energy project
Electricity is becoming more and more in demand around the world. There are more and more electric vehicles. Computers and servers too. Mining and the data processing industry are consuming more and more. Therefore, the largest corporations will come together to find a solution how to produce more electricity without increasing the consumption of fossil sources …
Opinion of “KP”: The search for a “perpetual motion machine” in the world has never stopped. But it is unlikely that large corporations will unite for such a case. As they say, such an innovation is needed by oneself.
2. French President Macron to step down
Like, the opposition will not allow him to carry out the promised reforms, including pension reforms. Against this background, the president will resign and begin to develop his own educational startup. In his place will be the ultra-right Marine Le Pen…
French President Emmanuel Macron.
A photo: GLOBAL LOOK PRESS
Opinion of KP: Anything can happen in the current European politics. Macron’s positions are quite strong. But everything will depend on how France passes the winter period. Problems in the economy, unemployment and rising prices can lead to mass protests like “yellow jackets”. And some juicy scandal connected with the president can accelerate the process of his departure from power.
3. Gold will rise sharply
Analysts at Saxo Bank believe that gold will almost double in price to $3,000 per troy ounce (31.1 grams). The explanation is that at the beginning of the crisis, most investors fled to the dollar. But the problems in the American economy will worsen, a protracted recession will begin, and gold will be the only defensive asset …
Opinion of KP: Gold has never risen to such a level. And in general, investor interest in it is fading. Such a sharp increase in value is possible only in one case – if the cryptocurrency bubble bursts. Then the money from this market in a panic will run into the underlying values, including gold.
4. In Europe, they will begin to create a Euro-army
Oracles from Copenhagen believe that the EU will finally return to the idea of creating a joint armed forces. There is a single currency, transparent borders too. It remains only to establish cooperation at the army level. A potential break in relations with the United States will push for this …
NATO armored vehicles during exercises in Latvia.
A photo: REUTERS
Opinion of “KP”: The decision as a whole is logical. Europe is gradually realizing that relying on the United States for everything, even in matters of security, is quite naive. Americans in any case pursue only their own interests. The situation with liquefied natural gas clearly showed this.
5. One country will completely ban meat production
By 2025, there will be at least one vegan country on the world map. The local parliament will make a decision on this in 2023. It will mean that the country will ban the production of any meat. Rationale – this area of the economy has a detrimental effect on the environment, contributes to global warming …
Opinion of “KP”: The insanity of some European politicians is really getting stronger. Especially ecological. So don’t be surprised if this actually happens. Although hardly. Usually the developed countries were persuaded to give up some important things peripheral countries. Like, why do you need your own energy or industry?! We have a global division of labor. Buy from us! These arguments are now viewed with greater skepticism in most of the developing world.
6. The UK will hold a referendum on returning to the EU
Here the Danes have outdone themselves. They not only predict that the next British prime minister will resign, and the government will be headed by the Labor Party. But they also give the exact date on which the referendum on abandoning Brexit will take place – November 1 next year …
Opinion “KP”: It’s hard to believe. Participation in the European Union means that a lot of decisions have to be coordinated with a bunch of other countries. In addition, in the current economic situation, countries, on the contrary, close themselves off from each other and introduce protectionist measures. Against this background, a return to the EU for the UK looks unlikely. The collapse of the United Kingdom itself is much more likely, from which Scotland and Wales can break away against the backdrop of the economic problems of the kingdom. Referendums on secession in these territories are quite real.
The Danes predict a new referendum in the UK.
A photo: GLOBAL LOOK PRESS
7. Pervasive price controls
Another consequence of high inflation. Saxo Bank believes that governments in many countries will begin to regulate prices and wages more strictly. And in the same States, a national council on prices and incomes will appear …
KP Opinion: Looks fantastic. Especially considering how much the invisible hand of the market and competition are valued in America. True, if you remember how Joe Biden tried to reason with gasoline sellers not to raise fuel prices, then you are not surprised at anything.
8. OPEC+ countries, China and India will switch to a reserve currency
Sanctions against Russia, and especially the freezing of foreign exchange reserves, frightened many developing countries. Confidence in the dollar and the euro has shaken. As a result, next year the leaders of several dozen countries will gather (attention!) in Astana, massively withdraw from the International Monetary Fund and agree to create a single reserve currency – the bancor. It will be provided with oil and other raw materials. Countries will pay bancor to each other …
Opinion of “KP”: The scenario is quite real. True, it is unlikely that the process of creating a new reserve currency will be so fast. There really is progress in this respect, de-dollarization is going on all over the world, but the process of switching to another global equivalent will obviously be delayed. Moreover, the United States will oppose this in every possible way.
9. The Japanese yen will soar to 200 per dollar
In other words, the Japanese currency is devalued by about one and a half times. Now the rate is 135 yen for one US dollar. It will be a boon for the Japanese economy. Firstly, forgotten inflation will appear in the country (and it is still needed for the development of the country). Secondly, a lower exchange rate of the local currency will reduce the real public debt…
Opinion of “KP”: From the growth of global inflation, the Japanese benefit more than others, because in the last 20-odd years they have been in a state of stagnation. The economy is treading water. So the transition to positive rates is only a matter of time. But will the yen fall at the same time? More likely no than yes.
10. Offshore will be outlawed
According to Danish analysts, the world is waiting for another roll on the “tax havens”: Bermuda, the Cayman Islands, the Isle of Man and others. Up to $500 billion disappears without a trace offshore. This is money that could go to the budgets of the countries where this or that business actually operates. Growing deficits will force the US and EU countries to pass tougher laws that will prohibit the use of offshore …
Opinion of “KP”: By the way, it is quite a likely scenario. Offshore companies in the West have been fighting for a long time. It is unlikely that “tax havens” will disappear altogether. But using them will definitely not be as profitable as before.
Have last year’s predictions come true?
It is noteworthy, but some predictions for the current year 2022 turned out to be very close to what is happening in reality.
– Hypersonic arms race. Oracles from Copenhagen predicted that the whole world would take part in it, including the USA, China, Russia, Israel and others. Its essence is to develop a weapon that, in the event of a global conflict, will be able to get ahead of a nuclear missile flying in your direction … In general, if we discard the nuances, the topic of weapons, including nuclear and hypersonic weapons, is on the main agenda this year.
– Revolt of women. As the Danish prophets believed a year ago, this year the beautiful half of humanity had to go crazy in search of equality and bankrupt large companies that do not comply with the principles of gender equality … The bankruptcy of specific companies has not yet reached, but the topic of women and equality is also one of main. Western media actively support the fight for women’s rights in Iran. And in the US, allegations of harassment and lawsuits against men are now commonplace.
– Crisis in the USA. Both political and economic. Analysts predicted that a spiral of inflation would sharply unwind in America – up to 15% per year, for the first time since the Second World War … The price increase did not reach this level, but at some point it was close to it. Inflation reached almost 10% per annum. This is also a record level, but since the 70s of the last century.
– Refusal of fashion for ecology. Danish bankers have predicted that the authorities of developed countries will dramatically change the vector. Due to the sharp rise in fuel prices, they will allow investment in oil and gas production. And the support of “green technologies” will again be shelved… “Greens” in developed countries are still trying to defend their ideals, but in most developed countries, against the backdrop of rising gas prices, they have begun to care more about basic values. Environmental protection has been pushed a little by the wayside. Moreover, in some countries – for example, in Sri Lanka, high European ideals brought only hunger, lack of gasoline, default and revolution.